The Duck of Minerva

U.S. Midterm Election Prediction Fest 2010

by Bill Petti

1 November 2010, 2013 EDT

At Gallup, we are officially predicting–regardless of turnout level–at least 40 seats for Republicans.  Based on the numbers and our historical model, Republicans should land about 60+ House seats, easily gaining the majority.

Personally, I’ll say 65 just to be (arbitrarily) specific.  I’ll also predict that Republicans pick up 7 seats in the Senate, 3 short of a majority in that body.

What do you think? Feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments section.

Petti is Associate Director of Insights and Analytics at Alexion . Previously, he served as Lead Data Scientist in the Decision Sciences group at Maritz Motivation and a Global Data Strategist and Subject Matter Expert for Gallup.

1 Comment

  1. Rodger
    Rodger on 2 November 2010 at 04.03 EDT

    Maybe 538's Nate Silver's speculation about the “cell phone effect” is correct — meaning the R gain in the House should be fewer than 50 seats. I'll guess 45.

    I agree that the Rs will win a lot of new Senate seats — 7 may be too low, but I'll take that.