Randy Waterhouse

The Problem of State Capacity

by Randy Waterhouse | 29 July, 2009 |

The question of state capacity might be one of, if not the, most important question that academics and policy makers can tackle. When we talk about local, regional, and international stability, failed states, etc, often times the major problem is a lack of capacity by a state to control what goes on within its borders. State capacity is the product of numerous variables, including legitimacy, material resources, government coherence, coercive capacity, and autonomy vis-a-vis international actors. And while state capacity is seemingly a critical issue in global politics, policy makers and...

How do you say ‘hanging chad’ in Persian?

by Randy Waterhouse | 16 June, 2009 |

The news yesterday that the Iranian Guardian Council has ordered what amounts to an inquiry into certain disputed ballots may at first glance appear as a positive development. However, it is not at all clear that simply recounting certain ballots is going to truly reconcile the apparent disparity between the expected results and the actual results. I would posit that right now you have the leadership in Iran scrambling to send signals both domestically and internationally that it will take the accusations seriously and act as an impartial arbiter, so as to avoid a number of unwanted outcomes...

Nate Silver on Iranian Elections

by Randy Waterhouse | 14 June, 2009 |

Nate analyzes some statistical analysis claiming to show fraud in Friday's elections. Short story, he is not buying the analysis (as the results are mostly an artifact of how the numbers were released), nor is he discounting the possibility that it occurred (which, I would say, is more than reasonable).Rob Farley links to a nice summary regarding what's in the air regarding the dimensions of the 'political coup'. Part of this, if true, shows an attempt to cover up data that would more than suggest outright fraud.Still waiting for a reliable statistical model of estimated electoral fraud....

Estimating the Degree of Election Fraud in Iran: Nate Silver, are you out there?

by Randy Waterhouse | 13 June, 2009 |

Given the recently held presidential elections in Iran, and the claims from each candidate that they won the election, I am wondering if it is possible to reliably estimate the amount of voter fraud in favor of one candidate. At the very least, can we reliably estimate the amount of fraud perpetrated by the incumbent, who naturally has the advantage in terms of infrastructure and resources at their disposal? I honestly don't know and have never thought deeply about such a problem. However, my instincts tell me that there ought to be a way, depending on the quality and volume of data one has...

Balancing: A Reply to Tobias Harris

by Randy Waterhouse | 12 June, 2009 |

Tobias Harris over at Observing Japan, weighs in on the discussion regarding Japanese balancing (or lack thereof). Harris' post is an excellent addition to the discussion and includes some excellent points that require me to clarify my original post. And away we go...1) Tobias is correct that given the current and likely current state of the DPRK they are not exactly a Gilpin-esque revisionist power. However, I don't think that a state must have asperations and likely capabilities to match to be considered a revisionist state in general. A state that clearly is unhappy with the current...

Balancing, Uncertainty, and Domestic Politics

by Randy Waterhouse | 11 June, 2009 |

Peter brings up an interesting question and one that we don’t yet have a final answer on: Under what circumstances will states balance against another? If shifts in the balance of power are not enough to provoke balancing, what does? I think the notion that Japan could be provoked into balancing by the DPRK rather than China certainly has merit. A few initial thoughts as to why this may be the case:1) Increased Economic Dependence: China’s military modernization has been and will continue to be fueled by its growing economy. Japan has become arguably China’s most important economic partner...

The Allah-father

by Randy Waterhouse | 25 April, 2009 |

Interesting post this morning over at The Argument on the similarities between the Taliban and organized crime. This idea echoes earlier (and interesting) work by Charles Tilly on the origins of the state. While I think Peters' analysis is interesting and thought provoking, I don't think it means we should ignore the religious aspect of the movement. Understanding the criminal aspects of their enterprise is useful for gaining perspective on their material capabilities and the methods through which they maintain and grow those capabilities. It also allows us to think thoroughly as to how we...

Troubling Advances in Pakistan: Signs of Failure? (updated)

by Randy Waterhouse | 23 April, 2009 |

My first semester in graduate school I had the pleasure of attending a talk by General Wesley Clark (Ret.). He gave the talk not soon after the attacks of September 11th and the US offensive in Afghanistan. At the time, Clark was just begining a PR offensive that would eventually position him as a contender for the Democratic nomination in 2004. During the Q&A I asked him a question about the regional dynamics going forward as a result of the Afghanistan offensive. While not criticizing the move (I was for it), I questioned what the potential fallout could be in terms of domestic politics...

Cyber Developments: National Security Edition

by Randy Waterhouse | 21 April, 2009 |

The Wall Street Journal reported today that hackers have breached classified data on the United States' Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program (the F-35). (For those without a subscription, here is the Reuters story). The scale and nature of information the hackers were able to obtain appears quite significant--however, the most sensitive data did not reside on servers connected to the web, which is good news.The default suspect is, of course, China (why you say? see here). However, given the value of the data for both potential adversaries and, frankly, countries that are not in some way privey...

Compellence

by Randy Waterhouse | 31 March, 2009 |

Pakistani Taliban Leader Threatens Attack on WashingtonCompellence in its purest form: a threat to inflict pain if an adversary does not alter their current behavior. Is the threat credible? It's unclear at this time, although US officials are publicly dismissing it. Other threats of late seem more credible--although the FedEx strategy is an example of deterrence, not compellence.And no, I am not morally equating FedEx and Mehsud--just pointing out examples of strategy.I haven't actually seen a study which looks at the success rate of terrorist or non-state deterrent/compellent threats...

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