Debate reaction – a few more thoughts

27 September 2008, 1726 EDT

1. McCain did make one major strategic mistake in the debate. Although he may have thought that he was pushing his “change” theme by invoking his status as a “Maverick,” distancing himself from Bush, and talking about earmarks, he dropped it as a framing theme in favor of “experience.” He needs to at least stay competitive as a “change agent” if he wants to win the election. I assume that he’ll return to this frame in later debates, but he needed to do more of it last night.

2. If the polls are still at Obama +5-6 by the next debate, I expect there’s a good likelihood that the current differences in Obama’s and McCain’s tone and presentation will become more acute. Although Democratic partisans want Obama to go more offense, at that point he’s likely to be focused on running out the clock, i.e., reprising his themes and avoiding making any negative news.

3. I’m not convinced that the debates will matter very much this year. If we do see movement in the polls away from Obama by the middle of next week, don’t assume that it had anything to do with the debate. Likewise if his lead continues to expand.

Dan Nexon

Daniel H. Nexon is a Professor at Georgetown University, with a joint appointment in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service. His academic work focuses on international-relations theory, power politics, empires and hegemony, and international order. He has also written on the relationship between popular culture and world politics.

He has held fellowships at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and at the Ohio State University's Mershon Center for International Studies. During 2009-2010 he worked in the U.S. Department of Defense as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow. He was the lead editor of International Studies Quarterly from 2014-2018.

He is the author of The Struggle for Power in Early Modern Europe: Religious Conflict, Dynastic Empires, and International Change (Princeton University Press, 2009), which won the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) Best Book Award for 2010, and co-author of Exit from Hegemony: The Unraveling of the American Global Order (Oxford University Press, 2020). His articles have appeared in a lot of places. He is the founder of the The Duck of Minerva, and also blogs at Lawyers, Guns and Money.