At Gallup, we are officially predicting–regardless of turnout level–at least 40 seats for Republicans. Based on the numbers and our historical model, Republicans should land about 60+ House seats, easily gaining the majority.
Personally, I’ll say 65 just to be (arbitrarily) specific. I’ll also predict that Republicans pick up 7 seats in the Senate, 3 short of a majority in that body.
What do you think? Feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments section.
Petti is Associate Director of Insights and Analytics at Alexion . Previously, he served as Lead Data Scientist in the Decision Sciences group at Maritz Motivation and a Global Data Strategist and Subject Matter Expert for Gallup.
Maybe 538's Nate Silver's speculation about the “cell phone effect” is correct — meaning the R gain in the House should be fewer than 50 seats. I'll guess 45.
I agree that the Rs will win a lot of new Senate seats — 7 may be too low, but I'll take that.