What is the name of the journal article (or book) and what are its coordinates?

What is the name of the journal article (or book) and what are its coordinates?

“The Fossil-Fueled Roots of Climate Inaction in Authoritarian Regimes” is available in FirstView at Perspectives on Politics.

What’s the argument?

The more money autocracies make from producing oil and gas, the fewer steps they take to reduce emissions. So it’s no surprise that the United Arab Emirates tried to strike new oil and gas deals when it hosted last year’s climate talks or that Azerbaijan, the host of this year’s talks, falsely said that expanding fossil fuel production is compatible with keeping warming under 1.5-2°C. But institutions that constrain unilateral executive action limit the impact of fossil fuel wealth in authoritarian regimes. For instance, Morocco’s Higher Planning Commission played an active role in advising King Mohammed VI to introduce renewable energy reforms beginning in 2009, and Morocco is generally considered a climate leader

Why should we care?

Climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity. And the most important unanswered questions related to climate change are political. Who will be in charge of reducing emissions? Will they actually do it? What tradeoffs will they face? What social vulnerabilities might be exacerbated by efforts to address climate change? Climate change involves difficult questions of power, authority, justice, freedom, governance, modernity, and so on that are fundamentally political. So, as others have pointed out, it’s time for political scientists to get serious about researching climate change, especially in authoritarian regimes.

Why will we find the article persuasive?

I collected data on emissions, oil and gas income, and executive constraints for 108 countries ruled by authoritarian regimes between 1990-2021 and analyzed that data using a wide variety of statistical tests. The most important aspect of my study is the sensitivity analysis, which lets researchers see how shaky their results are in light of alternative explanations. I show that any alternative explanation would need to identify a variable that’s at least four-times stronger a predictor of the dependent and independent variables in my study as real per capita GDP. GDP predicts emissions better than pretty much anything else, so you’d be hard-pressed to find something four-times stronger.

Why did you decide to write it in the first place?

Originally, I wanted to study the politics of climate change in democracies after seeing how Fridays for Future, the Sunrise Movement, and other activist groups mobilized to demand government action to reduce emissions. But over time, I realized that we know so little about autocracies, that there was more to learn from focusing on them instead.

What would you most like to change about the piece, and why?

I would have like to change two things. First, I wish I had used the term “climate obstruction” instead of “climate inaction.” It’s becoming increasingly clear that delay and denial are ways that political actors actively try to block efforts to reduce emissions, not just forms of inaction, and it’s important to call that out. In that sense, the new working group on “Climate Obstruction in Authoritarian Regimes,” hosted by the Climate Social Science Network is an important development in climate research. Second, I would have like to compare different measures of fossil fuel wealth in greater depth. You could write an entire paper about the implications of different ways that scholars conceptualize and measure fossil fuel wealth.

How much difficulty did you have getting the piece accepted?

It was a mixed bag. Political science has been slow to develop expertise on climate change, so it can sometimes be hard to get climate change research through the review process. Luckily, the reviewers and editors at Perspectives on Politics saw value in the article. The process from submission to review to acceptance to publication was extremely pleasant, collegial, efficient, intellectually engaging, and professional. I am tremendously grateful for their thoughtful engagement.