I am currently at the Social Science Research Center in Berlin to present a paper on norm suppression. While here, I had the opportunity to learn more about some of the work being done by the Civil Society, Conflicts, and Democracy research unit. Listening to these folks talk about the stability of authoritarian regimes reminded me of some thoughts I had when I recently travelled to Cuba to present another paper.
In addition to prepping for that presentation, I was also reading for my Arab Spring and Social Media course I will teach in the Spring. Needless to say, revolutions were on my mind. And the thought foremost on my mind was, why has there been no Cuban Spring? In some ways, the conditions in Cuba are similar to conditions in Egypt prior to Mubarak’s resignation. High levels of unemployment and underemployment, a relatively well educated population, a pervasive sense of discontent with government policies, and an awareness that these grievances are collectively felt. Could it be that Cubans, unlike Egyptians, haven’t taken to the streets because the Castro regime has successfully been able to scapegoat the United States for the troubles which plague this island? While in Havana, the issue of the trade embargo came up before the UN General Assembly. How the United States voted was widely known. Billboards such as this one can be found throughout Havana, particularly around the airport:
https://townhall.com/photos/2012/04/30/a_car_passes_beside_a_billboard_in_havana
Another possibility offered to me while in Havana is that Cubans are passive people- they accept the status quo, rather than challenge it. That seems hard to believe given Cuba’s history of popular resistance. But even so, Wael Ghonim characterized Egyptians in much the same way.
Not knowing much about Cuba or authoritarian regimes, I don’t really know the answer. Perhaps someone with greater expertise than I do can offer some insights.
Don’t forget that heaps of Arab spring countries have not become democracies … https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2012.726186
Since Betcy has kindly mentioned our research project which is sponsored by the German Science Foundation, I should add a few thoughts about the Cuban case. Going beyond recent work on authoritarian regimes, my colleagues and I believe that authoritarian leaders must not only secure the loyalty of a country’s social, economic, state, and political elite but also the support of the broader public through legitimation. Moreover, repression – especially, the softer type of little pinpricks and barely veiled threats – is the stick of dictators that must be added to the carrot.
Starting with legitimation in Cuba, there is little doubt that Castro and his followers have done a fairly good job legitimizing their rule. Unlike in Egypt, the gap between rich and poor has remained modest, basic social services are provided, and the evil US continues to serve as a welcomed scapegoat for all those shortcomings that are common in socialist systems. And socialist systems are perfect to exert these modest forms of repression, because citizens’ well-being crucially depends on the benevolence of the state. As Egypt has opened its markets in recent years, it has lost the ability to excert this form of repression to some degree.
To me, these are the two primary reasons why Cuba will not follow the Egyptian example.
My girlfriend is Cuban and has many former classmates with post graduate educations that have left Cuba, and while Cuba is not my specialty, whenever I have the opportunity I pick their brains about conditions in Cuba.
I will start with the upside. In Cuba, you have access to a great many cultural activities for little or no cost including films, concerts, ballet and theater. There is also a deep sense of cultural belonging and pride. One thing that surprised me was that they have access to virtually all American television shows, music and movies through the black market. People bring pen drives full of digital files and then they burn cds in Cuba. People are well educated and of course there is the vaunted social healthcare system. Cubans study abroad in South America and are some of the best students when they do so.
Now the downside. Cuba is in the worst economic crisis since the Berlin Wall fell. The rank and file cannot buy meat, potatoes and eggs in significant quantities. Agricultural production is a mess, and Cuba’s balance of trade is highly distorted. Internet access is limited to very slow email and it is expensive to have a cell phone, my gf never had one until she left Cuba. Professionals like doctors and engineers are not allowed to leave Cuba for 10 years or so after they receive their degrees, so visiting family abroad is problematic. Cubans leave Cuba by borrowing money from relatives abroad or not returning after getting a tourism or student visa. If you get a visa to leave Cuba, the government uses your family to ensure your return.
The Regime sustains itself by manipulating Cuba’s family based culture. That is how it holds power despite the economic crisis. You want to visit your family in Cuba? Pay up, the regime has fines and fees for every step of the way. You want to leave Cuba to study? You have to pay a fee annually to maintain your right to state services when you return.
Like Iran, economic sanctions would have to Draconian to work because the government is offsetting its trade problems with remittances, foreign aid from countries like Canada, and fees.