The Duck of Minerva

[Updated 7.4.06] John Robb peaks into his crystal ball to see what might happen if the US moves forward with a strategic bombing campaign against Iran (discussed in the new issue of the New Yorker by Sy Hersh). He relays some interesting possibilities, although I must say that much of what he talks about was echoed by others in the lead up to the Iraq war, and certainly the reverberations from that conflict have not been as severe as predicted.However, there are certainly significant differences between Iraq 3 years ago and Iran today--particularly when it comes to Iran's capacity to damage...

...a few stories worth your time as you begin your holiday weekend:The Christian Science Monitor has a great article discussing the multiple motives and objectives behind Israel's recent Gaza operations.Great Britain sought the services of the US nuclear deterrent to help protect Hong Kong during the Cold War, recently released documents suggest. What is of interest for me is the recognition that the colony was "strategically irrelevant", but that the British government "decided that it did have a vital symbolic role as the country's sole frontier with the Communist world", coming to the...

Apparently, he is also an expert on Central Asia. That is what I like about Rall, he never lets facts or logic get in the way.Nathan over at the excellent Registan has the story.Filed as: Ted Rall

As most are aware, Baseball commentator Peter Gammons suffered a brain aneurysm at his home in Cape Cod, MA. As of this morning he is out of surgery but still in the ICU. He has been listed in good condition.My colleagues and I here at the Duck are avid baseball fans. Speaking for myself, I can honestly say that Gammons’ Hall of Fame reporting over the last 15 years has made me both a more passionate and informed fan of the game. Always fair and balanced, Gammons never let the passion for his hometown Red Sox color his analysis. He always gave credit where it was due and would not hesitate...

Russian President Vladamir Putin announced today that he has ordered the Russian Federal Security Service to “find and destroy” those responsible for the kidnapping and murder of Russian diplomats in Iraq (for background on the story, see here).The announcement by Putin was followed by a statement passed in the lower house of the Russian parliament criticizing the “occupying countries” (i.e. the United States), noting that they have lost control of Iraq.I haven’t been able to find out much more at this point (so far, the Guardian seems to have the best coverage), but it will be interesting...

...I submit the latest from Ted Rall (click here for larger image) :I will leave aside the weak argumentation about the lack of importance of Afghanistan to the fight against al-Qaeda (however, who the hell cares where Bin Laden was physically on 9/11/01?? Wow, great argument Ted...), but will take issue with his claim at the end that Pakistan had a female President.Here is a list of past Presidents in Pakistan. Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see any women. Perhaps Ted was referring to Benazir Bhutto, who was elected Prime Minister in 1988 and again in 1993. In either case the...

Over the weekend former defense secretary Richard Perle wrote an op-ed for the WaPo excoriating—no, not the Democrats, but Neoconservatives' other favorite punching bad—the State Department for the current standoff with Iran over its nuclear program.Besides throwing in the now requisite amount of references to resolve, appeasement, etc, etc, Perle makes the unusual claim that we should have “…referred the matter to the U. N. Security Council and demanded immediate action.”Right, wait--what?Bruce Jentleson over at America Abroad has an adequate response:“2003, hmmm, wasn’t something else...

In April I discussed a story making the rounds that the Bush administration failed to take Iran up on an offer to talk about its weapons program and support for anti-Israeli terrorists shortly after the President declared the end of 'major hostilities' in Iraq. Of course, whether the offer was legitimate or some sort of ploy has been debated a great deal. Stygius and Kingdaddy broatch the topic yet again and discuss its strategic implications in light of where we are today. More on the rise of President Ahmadinejad at the FT.Filed as: Iran

Just saw this headline at the BBC: Iran calls halt to petrol importsI have no evidence for this statement, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran was somehow readying itself and the public for potential punitive sanctions by the West, which may include disruptions to imported, refined oil.For all the oil Iran produces and exports its refining capacity is sub-par, making them dependent on imported oil (yeah, it's wierd I know). Just a thought.Apparently the FP Passport and I think alike.Filed as: Iran

In previous posts and other arenas I have argued that the Iraq War could not be explained simply by the threat of WMDs, the desire to liberate the Iraqi people, to spread democracy, to uphold the credibility of the UN, etc, etc. My point was that you must look at the operation in the larger context of a global struggle against innumerable threats to US security, both state- and non-state based, where the US for all its power recognized its limited resources and options.Iraq was not an end in itself but rather the means to further the ends of our grand strategy; it was to serve as a...