The Duck of Minerva

Bill Petti

Petti is Associate Director of Insights and Analytics at Alexion . Previously, he served as Lead Data Scientist in the Decision Sciences group at Maritz Motivation and a Global Data Strategist and Subject Matter Expert for Gallup.

Recent Posts

And now for something completely different–fantasy football geekery!

by Bill Petti | 31 August, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]It's that time of year again. The passing of the summer, the start of the fall. Most importantly, it signals the start of that most magical of times--the start of the fantasy football season.This year I am in three leagues--one for work, one for "stat-geeks", and one for family and friends. I decided to tweak the way I approached the draft this year and wanted to share a bit of the strategy with readers.One of the biggest problems with standard pre-draft rankings, particularly those of the big fantasy hosting sites (e.g. ESPN, CBS, etc) is that the rankings are...

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The Danger of Data without Theory

by Bill Petti | 13 August, 2010 |

I came across this Chris Anderson piece from a 2008 issue of Wired via Ana Andjelic. Anderson argues that in the era of Big Data we no longer need to rely on theory and the scientific method to achieve advances in knowledge:Google's founding philosophy is that we don't know why this page is better than that one: If the statistics of incoming links say it is, that's good enough. No semantic or causal analysis is required. That's why Google can translate languages without actually "knowing" them (given equal corpus data, Google can translate Klingon into Farsi as easily as it can translate...

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“Statistics is the New Grammar”

by Bill Petti | 21 April, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]In the latest issue of WIRED, Clive Thompson pens a great piece which echoes a sentiment I've touched on before: in a data-driven world it is critical that all citizens have at least a basic literacy in statistics (really, research methodology broadly, but I'll take what I can get).Now and in the future, we will have unprecedented access to voluminous amounts of data. The analysis of this data and the conclusions drawn from it will have a major impact on public policy, business, and personal decisions. The net effect of this could go either way--it can usher in...

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Making Factories Disappear during War

by Bill Petti | 15 April, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]Noah Brier links to some incredible pictures at Sociological Images that show the "efforts to camouflage the Lockheed Burbank Aircraft Plant during WWII. The plant was essentially covered in netting made to appear, from the air, like a residential neighborhood. The aim was to keep it from being found by pilots and bombed."Before:After:The post includes some close ups as well as some views from underneath the netting. Very interesting.

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Methodology Lessons: DOE’s Natural-gas Overstatement

by Bill Petti | 7 April, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the US Department of Energy is set to restate the data it collects on U.S. natural-gas production. The reason? The Department has learned that its methodology is seriously flawed:The monthly gas-production data, known as the 914 report, is used by the industry and analysts as guide for everything from making capital investments to predicting future natural-gas prices and stock recommendations. But the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical unit of the Energy Department, has uncovered a fundamental...

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Seeing the whole board on financial reform

by Bill Petti | 23 March, 2010 |

Clive Crook does: The problem is not just that specific rules – higher bank capital requirements, for instance – threaten profits and are therefore opposed. It is that all governments see themselves as partners of their industries in world competition. Regulators seek not a level playing field but one tilted to their own groups’ advantage. This is not a hidden bias. It is proudly advertised. A government that did less than stand up for its own companies would be seen as failing in its duty. According to eToro Argentina, in finance, a footloose industry, this striving for regulatory advantage...

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Think like a methodologist

by Bill Petti | 6 March, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]In keeping with Patrick's theme on methodological discussions, I thought I would cross-post this recent piece from my personal blog.Nathan at Flowing Data puts words to an idea I've had for a while, but could never figure out how to communicate. He writes, "[T]he most important things I've learned [in statistics courses] are less formal, but have proven extremely useful when working/playing with data." Some of the lessons learned include:[T]rends and patterns are important, but so are outliers, missing data points, and inconsistencies. [I]t's important not to...

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When promises are credible signals

by Bill Petti | 5 March, 2010 |

[Cross-posted at Signal/Noise]While there are all sorts of actions people can take to signal that they are trustworthy, sometimes simply making a promise can get the job done. When two parties will be dealing with each other for an indeterminate amount of time it is advantageous to both if they are viewed as trustworthy. Lying would mean being punished in the future by the other party. In this way, talk isn't simply cheap--it's a credible signal.Case in point, the potential reconciliation of the Health Care Reform bill:Now, it's true that the Obama administration achieves its policy goals...

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Does Social Science Training make us Selfish and Immoral?

by Bill Petti | 18 February, 2010 |

Tim Hartford (whose blog at FT.com you really must read) discusses the results of a recent survey that suggest the answer is yes:A recent survey by Yoram Bauman and Elaina Rose, two economists from the University of Washington, explains that in experiments, economics students are less generous, more likely to choose an unco-operative approach and more likely to accept bribes.Bauman and Rose's survey built upon an earlier study 30 years ago which demonstrated that "postgraduate students of economics were more likely than others to “free ride” in a laboratory game, effectively exploiting other...

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Dictators, Torture Conventions, and Signaling

by Bill Petti | 16 February, 2010 |

Charli linked to a great round-up of theories circulating that propose to answer the rather interesting question of why countries that sign the Convention Against Torture seem to have a greater likelihood of committing torture.One working paper in particular , by James Hollyer and Peter Rosendorff of NYU, has caused quite a stir. They propose that dictators use the signing of such a treaty as a costly signal to domestic opposition groups that they fully intend to continue torturing those that oppose their regime. How does this work?We argue that authoritarian states ratify human rights...

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