The Duck of Minerva

For those that haven’t been paying attention, the Bush administration has launched its 2006 midterm-framing campaign for dealing with the Iraq debacle. Not surprisingly it’s a familiar riff, one that has been analyzed at length here at the Duck as well as more prominent outlets: 'If you think things are bad now, just wait till the Democrats gain power—they will pull out of Iraq and show the world we lack resolve, which will embolden our enemies'.When all is dark resort to reputational rhetoric and hope it resonates with your audience.The argument fails for a number of reasons, not the least...

Via Arms and Influence:Everyone remaining in southern Lebanon will be regarded as a terrorist, Israel's justice minister said yesterday as the military prepared to employ "huge firepower" from the air in its campaign to crush Hizbollah.Besides the fact that this is empirically false it's just plain stupid from a political standpoint. Not helpful.Filed as: Israel, Lebanon

Steven Cook (who holds a PhD from my department I might add) argues in the Washington Post this morning that the current problems in the Middle East are not to be blames on President Bush's democratization strategy. It isn't that there has been too much democratization to-date, but rather too little. Unfortunately, his analysis suffers from a number of problems: a rather weighty faith in the power of democratization and ignoring the more substantial causal power of state capacity.Cook's argument boils down to this:You cannot blame the current crisis in the region on democratization because...

In an attempt to lighten things up this morning I would like to try something new. Many readers are surely familiar with the practice of "Friday Cat Blogging". Well, I don't have a cat. However, I see no reason to limit this activity to felines. So in the interest of inclusiveness (and since I don't have the time or the strength for a substantive post at the moment) I present to you--Quint:My wife and I adopted him last year from a shelter near our home. As far as we know he is about 2 years-old and is a Pointer-Lab mix. And yes, our lives revolve around him.I beseach my fellow members to...

Secretary Rice:“What I won't do is go to some place and try to get a cease-fire that I know isn't going to last.”“A cease-fire would be a false promise if it simply returns us to the status quo, allowing terrorists to launch attacks at the time and terms of their choosing, and to threaten innocent people, Arab and Israeli, throughout the region.”“That would be a guarantee of future violence.”I actually think Rice is right here. Thinking beyond the current suffering the conflict obviously has brought (and will bring) to both the Israelis and Lebanese, simply imposing a cease-fire without...

Via LGM:Shorter United States Army LTC Ralph Kauzlarich: Pat Tillman's parents are only unhappy about the death of their son and the subsequent Army coverup of that event because they aren't Christian."In an interview with ESPN.com, Kauzlarich said: "When you die, I mean, there is supposedly a better life, right? Well, if you are an atheist and you don't believe in anything, if you die, what is there to go to? Nothing. You are worm dirt. So for their son to die for nothing, and now he is no more- that is pretty hard to get your head around that. So I don't know how an atheist thinks. I can...

Two very interesting pieces by Robert Kaplan in the past two days.First, Kaplan reviews a new book by Richard H. Shultz Jr. and Andrea J. Dew. The book, Insurgents, Terrorists, and Militias: The Warriors of Contemporary Combat, discusses the different methods, motivations, and goals of our primary adversaries in the GWOT. Why does it look good to me? Because they apparently take the honor, pride, and prestige motives of these actors serioulsy, as does Kaplan. If nothing else it should make for an interesting read.Second, Kaplan pens an op-ed for the NY Times today discussing the difficulties...

Via Think Progress: Kristol Suggests People of Iran Would Embrace U.S. Attack, Triggering Regime ChangeLet's see, where did I hear that one before--oh wait, I got it--Bill Kristol!February 2nd, 2002:The larger question with respect to Iraq, as with Afghanistan, is what happens after the combat is concluded. The Iraqi opposition lacks the military strength of the Afghan Northern Alliance; however, it claims a political legitimacy that might even be greater. And, as in Kabul but also as in the Kurdish and Shi’ite regions of Iraq in 1991, American and alliance forces will be welcomed in Baghdad...

It would appear that many conservatives have finally grown weary enough of the administration’s approach to foreign policy that they are beginning to make themselves heard. I agree with them on the basic point—the Iraq campaign made the US weaker and demonstrates that everyday. From the Washington Post:“Conservatives complain that the United States is hunkered down in Iraq without enough troops or a strategy to crush the insurgency. They see autocrats in Egypt and Russia cracking down on dissenters with scant comment from Washington, North Korea firing missiles without consequence, and Iran...

It appears George Will has joined the dark side with his WaPo column this morning. Welcome to the world of sane policy analysis George.Filed as: George Will