The Duck of Minerva

Heather Roff

Senior Research Analyst at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Fellow at Brookings Institution and Associate Fellow at University of Cambridge Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence

Recent Posts

What Does the Rise of AI have to do with Ferguson and Eric Garner?

What Does the Rise of AI have to do with Ferguson and Eric Garner?

by Heather Roff | 12 December, 2014 |

One might think that looking to the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and the recent spate of police brutality against African American males, particularly Michael Brown and Eric Garner, are remotely related if they are related at all. However, I want to press us to look at two seemingly unrelated practices (racial discrimination and technological progress) and look to what the trajectory of both portend. I am increasingly concerned about the future of AI, and what the unintended consequences that increased reliance on it will yield. Today, I’d like to focus on just one of those...

read more
Meaningful or Meaningless Control

Meaningful or Meaningless Control

by Heather Roff | 25 November, 2014 |

In May of 2014, the United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) first considered the issue of banning lethal autonomous weapons. Before the start of the informal expert meetings, Article 36 circulated a memorandum on the concept of “meaningful human control.” The document attempted to frame the discussion around the varying degrees of control over increasingly automated (and potentially autonomous) weapons systems in contemporary combat. In particular, Article 36 posed the question as one about the appropriate balance of control over a weapons system that can operate...

read more
Privacy, Secrecy & War: Emperor Rogers and the Failure of NSA Reform

Privacy, Secrecy & War: Emperor Rogers and the Failure of NSA Reform

by Heather Roff | 20 November, 2014 |

On November 3, Britain’s head of the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) published an opinion piece in the Financial Times, noting that technology companies, such as Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp, (and implying Google and Apple), ought to comply with governments to a greater extent to combat terrorism. When tech companies further encrypt their devices or software, such as what Apple has recently released with the iPhone 6, or what WhatsApp has accomplished with its software, GCHQ chief Hannigan argues that this is tantamount to aiding and abetting terrorists. GCHQ is the sister...

read more
The Responsibility to Protect & Fear of Foreign Policy Failure

The Responsibility to Protect & Fear of Foreign Policy Failure

by Heather Roff | 27 October, 2014 |

Last week I had the opportunity to partake in a workshop on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) at The Hague Institute of Global Justice (the Institute). The Institute is preparing to launch a project on R2P, seeking to bring academics, civil society and government/policy makers together to formulate insightful and policy relevant findings on R2P.   As the workshop was governed by Chatham House rules, I will only here note a few of my insights from the workshop, primarily insights about the connections between political will to uphold R2P and the theoretical and practical realities of...

read more
Cyber Letters of Marque and Reprisal: "Hacking Back"

Cyber Letters of Marque and Reprisal: "Hacking Back"

by Heather Roff | 15 October, 2014 |

In the thirteenth century, before the rise of the “modern” state, private enforcement mechanisms reigned supreme. In fact, because monarchs of the time had difficulties enforcing laws within their jurisdictions, the practice of private individuals enforcing their rights was so widespread that for the sovereign to be able to “reign supreme” while his subjects simultaneously acted as judge, jury and executioner, the practice of issuing “letters of marque and reprisal” arose. Merchants traveling from town to town or even on the high seas often became the victims of pirates, brigands and...

read more
U.S. Options Limited Due to Will and Not Lack of Drones

U.S. Options Limited Due to Will and Not Lack of Drones

by Heather Roff | 8 October, 2014 |

Today, Kate Brannen’s piece in Foreign Policy sent mixed messages with regard to the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS).  She reports that the US is balancing demands “For intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets across Iraq and Syria with keeping an eye on Afghanistan”. The implication, which the title of her piece implies, is that if the US just had more “drones” over Syria, it would be able to fight IS more adeptly.   The problem, however, is that her argument is not only misleading, it is also dismissive of the Arab allies’ human intelligence...

read more
ISIS, Syria, the Rebels and the US-Led Coalition: What Governs Who?

ISIS, Syria, the Rebels and the US-Led Coalition: What Governs Who?

by Heather Roff | 24 September, 2014 |

In a phone call today with a friend working on issues pertaining to the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), an interesting question arose. In particular, what types of conflict are going on with the fight against ISIS? My friend wanted to draw attention to the R2P aspects of the crisis, and whether the “intervention” on the side of the US was just according to these standards. While this is certainly an interesting question, I think it points us in the direction of a larger set of questions regarding the nature of the conflict itself. That is, what are the existing laws with which we ought to...

read more
Obama’s ISIS Strategy: A Clausewitzian Perspective

Obama’s ISIS Strategy: A Clausewitzian Perspective

by Heather Roff | 12 September, 2014 |

Much ink has been spilled over the last few days concerning President Obama’s speech on Wednesday evening regarding ISIS, as well as how his strategy will face many challenges going forward. Some cite that he does not go far enough, others that he has not fully laid out what to do in Syria when he has to face a potential deal with Assad. I, however, would like to pause and ask about the motivations on each side of this conflict, and whether we have any indications about how the asymmetry of motivations may affect the efficacy of Obama’s campaign. Moreover, we ought to also look to how this...

read more
Obama's "Lack" of Strategy Towards ISIS

Obama's "Lack" of Strategy Towards ISIS

by Heather Roff | 30 August, 2014 |

The last two days have seen a maelstrom of media attention to President Obama’s admission that he currently does not have a strategy for attacking or containing ISIS (The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) in Syria.   It is no surprise that those on the right criticized Obama’s candid remarks, and it is equally not surprising that the left is attempting some sort of damage control, noting that perhaps the “no strategy” comment is really Obama holding his cards close to his chest.   What seems to be missing from any of the discussion is what exactly he meant by “strategy,” and moreover, the...

read more
Monstermind or the Doomsday Machine? Autonomous Cyberwarfare

Monstermind or the Doomsday Machine? Autonomous Cyberwarfare

by Heather Roff | 13 August, 2014 |

Today in Wired magazine, James Bamford published a seven-page story and interview with Edward Snowden. The interview is another unique look into the life and motivations of one of America’s most (in)famous whistleblowers; it is also another step in revealing the depth and technological capacity of the National Security Agency (NSA) to wage cyberwar. What is most disturbing about today’s revelations is not merely what it entails from a privacy perspective, which is certainly important, but from an international legal and moral perspective.   Snowden tells us that the NSA is utilizing a...

read more