The Duck of Minerva

Maia Gemmill

Recent Posts

The Russians have NUKES! and they’re willing to use them!

by Maia Gemmill | 21 January, 2008 |

OK, so things are tense between Britain and Russia these days. But this breathless headline from the BBC is really over the top: "Russia warns of nuclear defence".The meat of the article is only a little less hysterical:Russia's military chief of staff has said Moscow is ready to use force, including pre-emptively and with nuclear weapons, to defend itself.Under what conditions would Russia use nuclear weapons?In a speech to a military conference broadcast on state-run cable TV, Gen Baluyevsky said there were potential threats to Russia from international terrorism or countries seeking...

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Putin’s plan

by Maia Gemmill | 12 December, 2007 |

Will Putin's plan be Russia's victory? I can't tell you. However, I can tell you that it does apparently involve Putin becoming prime minister. Dmitri Medvedev, the apparent heir apparent, yesterday declared that he would name none other than Vladimir Putin as his prime minister.Thus shall Vladimir Putin keep a grasp on the reins of power, though, as I have previously noted, it is no guarantee. The prime minister's position is substantially weaker than the president's; should Medvedev suddenly decide to disregard Putin's wishes, he would have substantial legal power to do so. On the other...

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The candidate

by Maia Gemmill | 10 December, 2007 |

After months of intrigue that fueled rampant speculation, Putin has finally endorsed a successor. Drum roll, please...And the winner is...Dmitri Medvedev.Medvedev has been considered a front-runner for years, along with former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. In recent months, this seemed to be working against him. Since September, when Putin abruptly dismissed the cabinet and appointed a new prime minister, all the buzz has surrounded Putin's supposed plan to remain in power, either to regain the presidency or serve as the puppet-master for a weak successor, as the siloviki consolidate their...

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Potentialities and possibilities

by Maia Gemmill | 7 December, 2007 |

By now you've probably read about the new NIE saying that Iran almost certainly halted its nuclear weapons program some time in 2003. There are, of course, bound to be people who disagree with this assessment--after all, it is an "estimate", which is another way of saying "our best guess". Although the report indicates varying levels of confidence associated with each piece of the report, it's not like we know for sure. Disagreeing with some parts of the report (or even the entire report) is a legitimate position.However, I am disappointed that the New York Times would published an op-ed...

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Darkness ahead

by Maia Gemmill | 26 November, 2007 |

Next Sunday, Russians are expected to go to the polls and overwhelmingly endorse the candidates of the pro-Putin party, Edinaya Rossiya.* What I find surprising is the level to which the government feels it needs to engage in electoral hanky-panky: all signs suggest that Edinaya Rossiya would receive a comfortable majority, even without the blatant manipulation of the system. Kommersant reports that a recent poll shows that it is very likely that no party besides Edinaya Rossiya will clear the 7% threshold for Duma representation--in that case, a "loyal opposition" may actually need to be...

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I just can’t seem to get enough of you

by Maia Gemmill | 1 October, 2007 |

I was planning to blog on the Ukrainian elections today (exit polls show a very slim lead for Yulia Timoshenko's party, but both sides claim victory), but, well, things get in the way. Like these headlines:"Putin eyes prime minister's job""Putin Says He Will Run For Parliament"United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya)--the Kremlin-approved dominant political party in Russia--kicked off its election campaign this morning with a party conference. It was widely announced that Putin would attend this meeting, which is not unusual--he has attended past United Russia conferences, though he is not...

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Turmoil in Georgia

by Maia Gemmill | 28 September, 2007 |

Photo: ReutersWhile I've been fascinated by goings-on in southeast Asia, I've missed events going on in my intellectual backyard: political turmoil in the Republic of Georgia.Earlier this week, President Mikheil Saakashvili and his former defense minister, Irakli Okruashvili, had a very public falling out. First, Okruashvili launched his an opposition party, "For a United Georgia". Then he alleged that Saakashvili instructed him to kill several public figures, including businessman Badri Patarkatsishvili, who owns the television station on which Okruashvili made these claims. He also accused...

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Update on Burma

by Maia Gemmill | 28 September, 2007 |

The government crackdown on democracy protesters continues in Burma. The official death toll is nine, including a Japanese photo-journalist, but opposition sources claim that the true number is many times higher. One report I heard claimed that there are over 100 bodies in hospital morgues, and more bodies in the streets. It is also becoming increasingly difficult to get good information about what is going on. The junta has realized the effect of the dramatic photos being electronically sent out of the country and has been actively working to sever internet and telephone connections to the...

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Crackdown

by Maia Gemmill | 26 September, 2007 |

Source: Mandalay GazetteAfter nine days of mass, peaceful protests in Myanmar, the crackdown has begun. Government troops have beaten demonstrators and fired tear gas and live bullets. The government currently claims that there has been one death and three injuries; independent accounts confirm the death of at least one monk. There are unconfirmed reports of as many as six protesters killed. There are also reports that hundreds of monks have been arrested around the country.Nevertheless, the demonstrations continued on Wednesday, despite the imposition of a curfew and a ban on gatherings of...

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Meet the new cabinet, same as the old cabinet

by Maia Gemmill | 25 September, 2007 |

Putin has named his new cabinet. Despite heated speculation in the media, the changes are fairly small. Almost all the ministers kept their jobs. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin kept his post, but has also been elevated to deputy prime minister. Minister of Economic Development and Trade Germain Gref is out, replaced by his former deputy Elvira Nabiullina. Gref's departure was widely expected, so no big surprises there. Dmitri Kozak, former envoy to the South Federal District (southern Russia and the Caucasus), has been appointed minister of regional development. Lastly, Deputy Finance...

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