The Duck of Minerva

Peter

Dr. Peter Howard focuses on US foreign policy and international security. He studies how the implementation of foreign policy programs produces rule-based regional security regimes, conducting research in Estonia on NATO Expansion and US Military Exchange programs and South Korea on nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

Recent Posts

Why I have extreme dislike for Virginia

by Peter | 19 August, 2008 |

Vacation blogging! The beach is very nice, and it looks like Fay will stay away from us.The trip down, however, left a bit to be desired, and only served to reinforce my extreme dislike of Virginia. I'm sure all you Virginia apologists will jump to the defense of your state, and yes, Virginia, there are some nice things about the state here and there (heck, one of our Duck contributors even lives there), but that said, you must admit that I-95 between the Beltway and Fredericksburg is perhaps one of the worst stretches of highway that you could ever drive on.The story: We decided to drive to...

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Georgia: Thoughts on what it might mean

by Peter | 13 August, 2008 |

With the Confrontation in the Caucasus seemingly over, I wanted to try to think through some of the implications for US foreign policy. Although it was a short conflagration, these past 5 days have the feeling of an important turning point. I don’t think that the Confrontation itself has fundamentally altered the nature of International Politics, but rather it seems endemic of a slow shift that had been underway for some time. Though the past order may have eroded gradually, Russia’s stark exploitation of the situation reveals the full extent of the shift.First, US credibility and influence...

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Olympic Observations

by Peter | 11 August, 2008 |

Echoing Rodger, Dan and Charli are doing excellent work on the serious stuff of the day, so here are a few light observations after a few light hours watching some of the Olympics over the weekend.Still President Bush is everywhere--its like he has nothing better to do. He's at the basketball game. Then he's with Misty May and Kerri Walsh, tapping May on the backside. Then he's on for an in-studio interview / commentary session with Bob Costas who gave David Gregory a good run for his money with some actual substantive questions. Then, not 2 segments later, he's in the water cube cheering on...

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The Central Front Front and Center

by Peter | 1 August, 2008 |

What is the "central front" in the war on terrorism?According to Obama, its Afghanistan. According to McCain, its Iraq. Bush--still president--has long asserted that its Iraq.A pair of articles in the NYT yesterday and today suggest otherwise--Pakistan should perhaps be at the center of the discussion.While Obama may in fact be closer to the mark with is focus on Afghanistan, the source of NATO's troubles in Afghanistan seems to be emerging from Pakistan. The resurgent Taliban uses Pakistan as a safe haven to rest, re-arm, and retreat as needed. Now, we learn, much of this seems to be...

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Obama and the end of Hegemonic Declinism

by Peter | 31 July, 2008 |

Its hard to miss the prevailing idea that American hegemony is in a precipitous decline. Earlier this year, Parag Khanna was “Waving Goodbye to Hegemony” in a New York Times Magazine cover story. In Foreign Affairs, Fareed Zakaria recently argued that America needs fundamental reform if it is to avoid a precipitous fall from grace. There have been countless discussions of the “rise of China,” and a resurgent Europe and the loss of America’s edge—even NBA stars are crossing the pond for more lucrative deals in Euros!In the current World Affairs, Robert Lieber attacks the current phase of...

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Oil

by Peter | 28 July, 2008 |

Sunday, the Washington Post launched a 4 part series giving an in-depth look at Oil. Sunday's part 1 gave a very solid primer on the global Oil economy, and today's installment looks at the impact that China's growing consumption has on both China and the world Oil market.Oil is a complex thing. It ties together nations who otherwise would have little need to interact. It turns regions into strategic security choke points, it lifts and crashes major economies, and it, broadly speaking, shapes an entire way of life. It brings together some of the most important issues in international...

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Con–Sonar: Crazy Ivan!

by Peter | 24 July, 2008 |

Yesterday I was running a short simulation exercise on the Cuban Missile Crisis for students in my summer program, and lo and behold, what appeared in the paper, but:Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons could be deployed to Cuba in response to U.S. plans to install a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, a Russian newspaper reported Monday, citing an unnamed senior Russian air force official.The report in Izvestia, which could not be confirmed, prompted memories of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the United States and the Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war...

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The Eight Year Itch

by Peter | 20 July, 2008 |

Eight years later, and we're back to the same spot with North Korea.Lets review:After a nuclear crisis that nearly results in war, the Clinton Administration reaches a nuclear deal with North Korea. After up and down implementation, North Korea lashes out with an ICBM test. Negotiations eventually resume, resulting in a more robust deal and further cooperation by North Korea. Things go so well that Secretary of State Madeline Albright visits North Korea at the end of the administration.The Bush Administration enters office determined to take a different line on North Korea. Bush famously...

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Bad Week for the USAF

by Peter | 22 June, 2008 |

Certainly not a winning week for the Air Force. Already reeling from the high-profile dismissal of both its uniformed and civilian leader, the USAF was slammed again in two major stories this week.First, the GAO slammed the Air Force's procurement procedures with a stinging rebuke of its decision to award its major tanker contract to the Northrup-Grumman. The USAF has been looking to upgrade its tanker fleet for years but the entire process has been clouded by scandal. There was the ill-fated sweetheart lease deal for Boeing. There was the criminal interference by senior Boeing leaders and a...

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