The Duck of Minerva

Feeling safe? You shouldn't-- its the threatdown!I'm teaching a National Security Policy class this semester, and last week our topic was Threats. The assignment that day was for each student to write a Threatdown--an ordered, annotated list of the top 10 threats facing American.Two things struck me in reading the threats my students identified.First, most--like on the order of 60% - 70%--were non-state threats. Things like Global Warming, Pandemic Disease, Natural Disaster, Economic Collapse, Oli, and Global Terrorist Networks figured prominently in many papers. Of the states that did...

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and publicly post a response to a debate that I've been having with a friend on email for a while now. Moreover, I'm going to go even more out on a limb and argue, well, you saw the title. The beauty of a blog.Background: What got this started was my earlier post where I concluded that withdrawal from Iraq was the least-bad option. My friend replied, yes, but isn't that just leaving a mess that will do further, future damage? In a way, he echoed David Ignatius's point:Many Democrats act as if that's the end of the discussion: A mismanaged occupation has...

There are about 5 things I want to write about, maybe I'll have the time to get to some of them this weekend-- Iraq, the NIE (though Dan has a nice post on it), what in the world was Musharaf doing on the Daily Show....But, I can't resist yet another Defense Spending post....This one from the F-22 files (and yes, its also an excuse to post a cool picture).Congress just voted to buy way more planes than the Administration wants, adding Billions of dollars of defense expenditures to the budget when the Military already has heavy demands on its budget for weapons, personnel, and ongoing...

Question of the day: are we winning?Answer:Asked point-blank whether the United States is winning in Iraq, Abizaid replied: "Given unlimited time and unlimited support, we're winning the war."In other words--no. We don't have unlimited time, and its rather clear that the Administration hasn't offered unlimited resources to its Commanders in Iraq. We've never been close to 200,000 troops in-country. Though....The general's comments effectively ended hopes for a big troop withdrawal from Iraq this year, which had long been the military's target for reducing forces. As violence has intensified...

...with thunderous applause?There seems to have been a coup in Thailand.The BBC reports that:A faction of the Thai military led by the army chief says it has overthrown Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.Soldiers have occupied the prime minister's offices and surrounded them with tanks, while leaders of the coup attempt have gone to meet the king.Mr Thaksin, who is at the UN in New York, declared a state of emergency and said he had removed the army chief. I had thought that Thailand was a solid democracy, but I guess it is not so, or at least not so much.There has been pressure growing on...

Seriously, its like shooting Fish in a Barrel.Today, we're "safer, but we are not yet safe." In fact, "The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad." Its an important struggle, "In truth, it is a struggle for civilization."To paraphrase Jon Stewart, If the future of civilization depends on winning in Iraq, why not send just a few more troops? You know, to make sure we win and all.Oh, right, it was supposed to be a cake-walk."I think there's no question . . . that the insurgency's gone on longer and been more difficult [than] I had anticipated," Cheney...

How many ways is Sept 10, 2006 different from Sept 10, 2001? Five years ago, there was a football game on in Prime Time, the Yankees heading for the post season, a Bush presidency struggling a bit to find its legs in the world of international affairs, and a general sense that tomorow would be like today, a regular work day, conducting the Nation's Business. It wasn't, of course, and that's why despite the fact that tonight, as you have prime-time network football, the Yankees on a roll, a struggling Bush presidency, and a general sense that tomorow, September 11, 2006 will be, for the most...

The Prisoner's Dilemma. A Political Science classic. You can, quite honestly, make an entire career of using it to explain just about everything that goes on in the world.Despite that fact, it still teaches us many, many interesting things, one of which is the importance of the "shadow of the future." When you start to play a series of PD games over time, the shadow of the future looms large. Thanks to Robert Axelrod, we know that the best long term strategy for an itterated game of Prisoner's Dilemma is a cooperative tit-for-tat. Now, the cooperation of tit for tat works so long as you...

In keeping with the Bill and Rodger theme, perhaps a bit more moral clairity on Rumsfeld's recent statements is in order.Courtsey of Tom Toles in today's WP:Moral Clarity is always appreciated in instances like this...Filed as: Rumsfeld

Its the first day of school today, such an exciting time. And what are we greeted with? A prime example of the power of globalization to shape international markets--even the vaunted US economy and Federal Reserve Board.Today, the NYT reports on the Fed's retreat/conference out in Wyoming (casual, because Fed Chair Ben Bernanke doesn't wear a tie).Econ 101 in a nutshell: the Fed sets interest rates in an attempt to manage inflation and domestic economic growth. Low rates mean money (loans, capital, financing) is cheap and available, so the economy grows but then inflation appears. Higher...