The Duck of Minerva

Peter

Dr. Peter Howard focuses on US foreign policy and international security. He studies how the implementation of foreign policy programs produces rule-based regional security regimes, conducting research in Estonia on NATO Expansion and US Military Exchange programs and South Korea on nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

Recent Posts

Barak Obama and the Renewal of American Hegemony

by Peter | 7 October, 2008 |

By way of introduction... I've been pondering a post along these lines for a short while now, but this isn't going to exactly be the post I had originally envisioned. Rather, inspired by the ongoing financial crisis and some things I read this evening, a slightly different version has emerged. Now, onto the show:A significant challenge for the next President will be dealing with the percipitous decline in American Hegemony since 2001. All three pillars of American power have severely eroded, leaving an open to mount a challenge to America's international leadership. Following Iraq and...

read more

Biden my time, Im-Palin myself

by Peter | 3 October, 2008 |

I'm watching the debate. Not even 10 minutes in and its anti-climatic.Palin: I'm not going to answer the questions the way you or the moderator want to hear, I'm going to talk straight to the American people.I'm not sure what that means.I can't wait until a student shows up in class and says I'm not going to answer the question on the test the way the professor or the students want, I'm going to write my blue book straight to the American people.What do you say to that?Sarah Palin: Middle Class, where todd and I have been all our lives. Middle class equals worth over a million dollars....

read more

A better job at telling the story…

by Peter | 1 October, 2008 |

David Leonhardt does a better job than most explaining the significance of the ongoing economic crisis and its parallel to the great depression. He finally understands the need to connect the dots, from bank failure, to credit crisis to impact on your household economy.The crucial point is that a modern economy can’t function when people can’t easily get credit. It takes a while for this to become obvious, since most companies and households don’t take out big new loans every day. But it will eventually become obvious, and painfully so. Already, a lack of car loans has caused vehicle sales...

read more

Bailing out the bailout

by Peter | 30 September, 2008 |

Rachel Maddow just asked perhaps the most insightful question of this bailout to date: Is this economic crisis global warming or the Iraq War? Is it a real crisis that builds slowly that people fail to acknowledge, or is it a bunch of hype and hysteria over what is, in the end, nothing.Laura D'Andrea Tyson says that this credit crunch is real and real bad, and your job is at risk. Its not a bail-out, but a rescue of a broken market.Therein lies the rub. I think there are two fundamental issues that have doomed the bailout bill earlier today.First, this is a really complicated mess, and no...

read more

Lets Debate the Debate

by Peter | 27 September, 2008 |

Really, I think it ends up a push. Both candidates held their own, both got in some solid points, both responded to direct attacks.So, tactically a push. Strategically, though, I think the tie goes to Obama. Foreign policy is McCain's strong suit, and where Obama is seen as the weakest. Obama is significantly ahead in the polls. McCain needed a knock-out blow, and he didn't get it. Obama needed to keep his position and look like he could be president, and I think he did that.I also think that there are going to be a few things, like "John is Right..." and "you just don't understand" and...

read more

Mid-Debate thoughts

by Peter | 27 September, 2008 |

The further it goes, the more I like this free-wheeling style that allows the candidates to actually go back and forth a bit, responding to each other. I think it gives a bit of insight as to how well they can box their own corner.Again, Obama says "McCain is right..." I think this might be one of those things that plays better to non-pundit viewers than it does to the talking heads, in that it makes Obama look agreeable. Obama is able to start with an acknowledgment of McCain but then assert his own position. We'll have to see on this, I guess.Both of them are landing some solid punches....

read more

Ducking the Debate

by Peter | 26 September, 2008 |

Who needs a MSNBC when you can have these guys giving post-debate analysis?!?!?!If this prompts a moment of nostalgia, try this.

read more

Metaphor for an Endgame

by Peter | 24 September, 2008 |

While I am never one to question the wisdom of the great Yogi Berra, we're starting to get a picture of how this Presidential election will play out--and it looks like Obama is clearly in the driver's seat.*Take Nate's analysis of the electoral map and today's Washington Post poll that gives Obama a 9 point lead.Two factors are working in Obama's favor. First, historically, early September polls--after the convention bump has dissipated-- tend to give a pretty solid read on the eventual outcome (PDF). Despite the high profile of the Debates, endless important speeches, millions of dollars...

read more

You’re no Harry Truman!

by Peter | 19 September, 2008 |

Charles Krauthammer is wrong, and I think Matt misses the point as to just how wrong Krauthammer is.Shorter Krauthammer: Bush is like Truman. Unpopular at the end of his term but history will vindicate him as a pretty good president.The fundamental flaw with this argument is that it overlooks the actual history of why this is so. Truman was unpopular largely due to the Korean War, which, by the end of his term, was not going well. Ike won, in part, on his famous pledge "I will go to Korea" capitalizing on public dissatisfaction with the stalemate in the war.Truman is remembered as a great...

read more

Scribbles in My Notebook on AIG

by Peter | 17 September, 2008 |

One of my favorite Cleveland sports columnists often does a column of brief observations and insights after a game or big event. I don't scribble, and I lack a notebook, but watching the AIG bailout has me thinking about a few things:Wow, that's a lot of money. To put this in perspective, recall the 2004 Presidential Election, when Kerry was rolled for being for the $87 billion before he was against it. That was a yearly supplemental appropriation to fund the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Paulson spent about the same to bail out AIG in one day.This may have avoided an imminent financial...

read more