The Duck of Minerva

Peter

Dr. Peter Howard focuses on US foreign policy and international security. He studies how the implementation of foreign policy programs produces rule-based regional security regimes, conducting research in Estonia on NATO Expansion and US Military Exchange programs and South Korea on nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

Recent Posts

Courting Influence

by Peter | 17 September, 2008 |

The NY Times has a very interesting article out today reporting that the influence of the US Supreme Court is waning--internationally. While the Court holds no jurisdiction beyond the US borders, for a long time it served as an intellectual leader in world judicial opinion. Other nations looking to develop a strong judicial system looked to the US Supreme Court as a model, and looked to the Court's opinions as cutting-edge legal thought that could--and did--shape legal arguments elsewhere.The signature innovations of the American legal system — a written Constitution, a Bill of Rights...

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Henry Paulson as “The Stabilizer”

by Peter | 12 September, 2008 |

The US bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was a massive government intervention into the securities market. Why do this?Dan Drezner gives some insightful instant analysis, noting how the fall-out has reverberated through the global economy, hitting China, Russia, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and many other key international actors. The US Government: is also trying to soothe financial markets and-more important-please foreign creditors. China is far and away the largest foreign investor in long-term U.S. government agency debt-more than $375 billion. In the past month Chinese officials had...

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More smoke than fire

by Peter | 12 September, 2008 |

I think Nate is doing some of the best analysis of the current electoral map, and today he makes a critical point: despite all the hype and attention that Palin has given to the McCain ticket, the electoral math is for the most part unchanged from the pre-convention period. Palin has brought home those Republicans who didn't really believe McCain was one of them, but the McCain bounce in the polls is greatest in states where he is already popular. As a result, the electoral college math (which is what really matters, so resist the urge to worry about national daily tracking numbers) is...

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Pyongyang-ology

by Peter | 9 September, 2008 |

North Korea often seems more than just Another Country, it often seems like another planet. It remains one of the most closed, authoritarian, and militarized states on the planet, and it is impossibly difficult to penetrate from a scholarly, cultural, diplomatic, or intelligence angle. As a result, many North Korea analysts are left to play Pyongyang-ology, parsing nuance in official statements, relying on tibits from the few outsiders and diplomats who are allowed into the country, and passive intelligence gathering platforms.Kim Jong-Il has been off the public stage for a while, but today...

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Done and done

by Peter | 4 September, 2008 |

I am now officially over Sarah Palin. Hard to believe, yes, given the odd fascination with her odd-for-a-Republican-VP nominee background, but its over.More importantly, the Republicans need to start getting over her, or they are in trouble.Palin has now done what the McCain camp needed her to do. She effectively seized the campaign narrative form Obama and brought it to the Republicans. She did so without involving President Bush. She energized the party base. She gave what everyone is going to say was a good speech last night (though I'll admit I didn't really watch it because I was...

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Sarah Plain and Tall II

by Peter | 29 August, 2008 |

Further thoughts on the Palin pick...There seem to be two different logics to picking a running mate.*Logic 1: Would this person make a good VP once elected? Could the person step into the role of President should the worst case scenario arise? Will the person be a partner in governing, capable of taking on a significant portfolio?Logic 2: Will this person help the ticket win the election? Does the person bring some sort of constituency into the fold? Does the person shore up a perceived weakness in the top of the ticket?You can kinda see where this is going... Obama seems to have followed...

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Sarah Plain and Tall

by Peter | 29 August, 2008 |

My initial reaction to McCain's choice of Sarah Palin to be his VP was: Who?This is very out of the box for McCain. On the one hand, you kind figured he'd try something like this, because after watching Obama's speech, he really to kickstart his campaign. On the other hand, picking a VP is supposed to be a serious choice, with the heartbeat away from the presidency thing and all. Palin, with zero, and I mean zero, national political profile, just doesn't seem to fit that bill. She's a major unknown. Under-experienced and unknown.Davenoon, the resident Alaskan at LGM, drops some knowledge...

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Un-Conventional Wisdom about the DNC

by Peter | 27 August, 2008 |

I want to disagree with Dan (who is very insightful in these matters) slightly here. I want to more strongly disagree with all the talking heads on CNN (who are not as smart as Dan), who have been decrying the lack of "red meat" in the convention speeches going after McCain and Bush.First off, there is plenty of Red Meat available-- it just happens to come from speakers who are talking when Anderson Cooper and Paul Begala are busy discussing how bored they are on-air.However, these speeches don't form the national message, bringing us to Dan's insight. I think, though, that there is an...

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Closing Olympic Observations

by Peter | 25 August, 2008 |

The Olympics ended about 12 hours ago, but NBC is giving us the tape-delayed broadcast this evening. One last set of semi-structured Olympic thoughts…Its pretty clear that these games had massive political undertones. China viewed this as a coming out / coming of age celebration and invested accordingly. The infrastructure was impressive (gotta love that water cube), and their performance was impressive, with the top gold medal haul, though the US was tops in overall medals. If you use the Boswell formula, China edged the US in total performance, a big thing for them. --The political...

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Hillary’s problem

by Peter | 22 August, 2008 |

Stories like this aren't good for Sen. Hillary Clinton.With Obama's lead slipping (McCain now wins half the time, according to Nate), The latest NBC/WSJ Poll offers a very compelling narrative for the Democrats looking to start the Blame Game:“It is not a dead heat, but it is close.”The survey also shows that both presidential candidates face their share of challenges. For Obama, he receives the support of just one in two voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries,Bring those voters home, and Obama is set. If those "should-be" D voters continue to defect, he's got an up-hill climb.If...

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