The Duck of Minerva

Rodger Payne

Rodger A. Payne is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Louisville. He serves on the University’s Sustainability Council and was a co-founder of the Peace, Conflict, and Social Justice program. He is the author of dozens of journal articles and book chapters and coauthor, with Nayef Samhat, of Democratizing Global Politics: Discourse Norms, International Regimes, and Political Community (SUNY, 2004). He is currently working on two major projects, one exploring the role of narratives in international politics and the other examining the implications of America First foreign policy.

Recent Posts

Iraqi International Initiative

by Rodger Payne | 29 November, 2007 |

Today, I received an email asking me to endorse the Iraqi International Initiative for Refugees. Basically, the sponsors want to convince the UN to mandate that Iraqi oil revenues be shared with the 4.5 million refugees and displaced persons dispersed throughout the Middle East and the world. Many are living in poverty in neighboring states.Here is their argument in a nutshell:The international community, the occupation powers, and the government in Iraq are legally required to support and protect Iraqi refugeesIraqi refugees are Iraqi citizens who have a full right to live in dignity, a...

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OPEC and Iraq

by Rodger Payne | 23 November, 2007 |

Was the Iraq war designed to break up OPEC?Do OPEC states now have a perverse incentive to favor continued instability in Iraq?I explore these questions today on my blog: "Oil: the third rail of the Iraq debate."Sorry, I probably just should have posted it here.

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The decline in Iraqi violence

by Rodger Payne | 20 November, 2007 |

Dan Drezner calls this piece in today's New York Times "the story that will occupy the blogosphere for today -- Baghdad is safer."Then, Dan excerpts a bit of the story by Damien Cave and Alissa J. Rubin that makes a point I've been stressing since General Petraeus made his optimistic report in September. Fewer Iraqis are dying because they fled the war zone: About 20,000 Iraqis have gone back to their Baghdad homes, a fraction of the more than 4 million who fled nationwide, and the 1.4 million people in Baghdad who are still internally displaced, according to a recent Iraqi Red Crescent...

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Breathe easier, DC and NYC

by Rodger Payne | 13 November, 2007 |

This weekend, the AP's Katherine Shrader wrote a fine story about the "myth" of suitcase nuclear bombs."The suitcase nuke is an exciting topic that really lends itself to movies," said Vahid Majidi, the assistant director of the FBI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate. "No one has been able to truly identify the existence of these devices."Many of the fears about suitcase bombs originated years ago in statements by a couple of Russians who may have had ulterior motives for inflating threats -- including retired General Alexander Lebed who told "60 Minutes" about missing suitcase nukes...

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Is neoconservatism still vibrant?

by Rodger Payne | 10 November, 2007 |

I'm late in commenting on Joshua Muravchik's long defense of neconservatism in the October issue of Commentary (republished by the Wall Street Journal here). If you haven't read it, I recommend doing so. Muravchik outlines the basic tenets of neoconservatism, explains why neocons find the war on terror so compelling (he compares it explicitly to the long cold war struggle against an evil empire), and defends the decision to attack Iraq. He also claims -- like many other neocons -- that the US must confront Iran.Muravchik's punchline certainly attempts to justify all the ink he spills. In...

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Where’d you hide the body?

by Rodger Payne | 8 November, 2007 |

Bloggers on the right have been trumpeting the apparent decline in Iraqi civilian deaths as a clear sign that the surge is working. Apparently, we do body counts now that we like the numbers.However, I've been arguing since September that civilian deaths may well be down because Iraqis feel insecure and have simply fled their homes. Such self-segregation is a classic response to ethnic war and there's new evidence suggesting this viewpoint is correct. From the AP's Lauren Frayer on November 5:Deadly rivalries have forced Shiite and Sunni Muslims to flee once diverse neighborhoods across...

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Iran, the IAEA and the US

by Rodger Payne | 7 November, 2007 |

Once again, I was recently contacted by an Iranian journalist for Fars News Agency.Kia Kojouri asked 2 questions, which I have slightly reworded:1. While IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei says that there is no evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons, the US and Frence are claiming that Iran seeks nuclear weapons. They have not presented any documentation for their claims. What do you think about that?2. The IAEA declares that outstanding issues between Iran and the IAEA will be solved during the next few weeks. What's your assessment about that?This is my reply: 1. El Baradei says that...

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Forced assignments

by Rodger Payne | 1 November, 2007 |

The Bush administration built an enormous embassy in Iraq -- and now cannot find volunteers from the State Department to fill it. Nearly 50 diplomats will soon be sent to Iraq on a "forced assignment" -- or be fired if they refuse to go. Perhaps because State's HR Department fears that many will resign or accept termination, it had to send a threatening letter to 250 employees. That's five candidates for each slot. The BBC reported yesterday that about 300 "angry diplomats" attended a meeting in response to the government's notice: Senior diplomat Jack Croddy, who once worked as a political...

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Link roundup

by Rodger Payne | 26 October, 2007 |

If the US is going to win hearts and minds in Iraq, then it needs to avoid killing innocent civilians. So why are air bombings up fourfold in Iraq this year? Max Bergmann of Democracy Arsenal explores this question.Eric Martin of American Footprints has a strong post on the (un)likelihood of Iran passing nuclear weapons along to terrorists. Moreover, if terrorists were serious about acquiring a bomb, wouldn't they try harder to get them from former Soviet sources? Despite new revelations about Syria's "cleanup job," Jeffrey Lewis over at Arms Control Wonk remains skeptical that Syria had a...

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O Captain! my Captain!

by Rodger Payne | 23 October, 2007 |

Twelve former US Army Captains published the "The Real Iraq We Knew" in the October 16 Washington Post: Today marks five years since the authorization of military force in Iraq, setting Operation Iraqi Freedom in motion. Five years on, the Iraq war is as undermanned and under-resourced as it was from the start. And, five years on, Iraq is in shambles.As Army captains who served in Baghdad and beyond, we've seen the corruption and the sectarian division. We understand what it's like to be stretched too thin. And we know when it's time to get out. There's a lot more after that start -- with...

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