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The beginning of the end for Netanyahu/the persistence of Israel-Saudi negotiations

by Peter Henne | 10 October 2023, 0913 EDT | Microblog | 0 Comments

This is just a short follow-up to my post yesterday with a few predictions.

First about Netanyahu’s future. Prior to Hamas’ attack over the weekend, much discussion about Israel focused on the right-wing Netanyahu government, his continuing corruption trial, and his efforts to reduce the power of Israel’s courts. For those who oppose Netanyahu, they fear he will emerge from this crisis strengthened.

There are reasons to expect this. Hamas’ attack could create a rally round the flag effect that benefits Netanyahu, just as support for George W. Bush increased after the 9/11 attacks. And Netanyahu has come to power in the past through frustration with insecurity.

This time I think it will be different. Netanyahu was never incredibly popular, but people supported him as he promised stability and security. He’s failed. I expect to find out the Netanyahu government was distracted by its own unwieldy coalition and his corruption trial, leading them to ignore warnings of a coming attack such as one reportedly issued by Egypt. He broke his bargain with the Israeli people, so to speak, and I doubt they will keep backing him. Indeed, I’m several several posts on Bluesky about Israelis’ frustration with Netanyahu.

The second involves current negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The United States is negotiating a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, with the expectation that Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in a manner similar to the Abraham Accords. Some believe this is doomed thanks to the attack. I’m not so sure. The willingness of several states to work with Israel without first resolving the Palestinian issue indicates they are downplaying its significance. They may now value ties with Israel above a principled stand on behalf of Palestinians. Saudi Arabia’s response was relatively moderate–especially compared to Qatar’s. So I expect them to still quietly work on normalization.

LIVE recording of Whiskey & IR Theory at BISA 2023

by Dan Nexon | 12 May 2023, 1132 EDT | Featured, Microblog, Theory & Methods, Whiskey & IR Theory | 0 Comments

Don’t miss the live recording of episodes 32 and 33 of Whiskey & IR Theory on June 21, 2023, starting at 3pm. We’ll be taping at the BISA annual conference. Rumors suggest that there may be whisky for tasting and schwagg for… something.

Episode 32 will be in “classic format.” We’ll discuss Robert Cox’s classic 1981 article, “Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory.”

Episode 33 will be a “whiskey optional” on status and international-relations theory.

BISA attendees should register in advance for one or both of the special sessions.

The Best Propaganda is True

by Dan Nexon | 14 February 2023, 1454 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

David Pierson at The New York Times:

While many in the world see the Chinese spy balloon as a sign of Beijing’s growing aggressiveness, China has sought to cast the controversy as a symptom of the United States’ irrevocable decline.

Why else would a great power be spooked by a flimsy inflatable craft, China has argued, if not for a raft of internal problems like an intensely divided society and intractable partisan strife driving President Biden to act tough on Beijing?

This gets at why “the balloon incident” genuinely scares me; it suggests that the United States is doomed to the ratchet effects of domestic outbidding over who can be “tougher” on China.

That’s a recipe for threat inflation, poor policy decisions, and (even more) toxic domestic politics.

Interwar Fascism and the Contemporary Far Right

by Dan Nexon | 21 January 2023, 1000 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

Justin Casey and I have a new piece at Foreign Affairs. We discuss the debate about whether or not modern reactionary populism is a variant of fascism (maybe) and whether the dynamics of fascism during the Interwar period holds any lessons for the present (probably). Check it out.

Worf as the Kantian Klingon

by Dan Nexon | 9 January 2023, 1058 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

My partner used to refer to Worf as the Klingon equivalent of a Kantian. The Klingon-centric episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation and Star Trek: DS9 make clear that Worf is committed to a deontological interpretation of Klingon ethics.

If you’re still reading this, you likely know that, first, Klingon ethics and morality are built around personal honor and, second, Worf was raised by humans. Because he spent his youth without much, if any, contact with other Klingons, Worf’s understanding of Klingon ethical duties is theoretical and idealized. This turns out, to say the least, to be out of step with the much more flexible, even corrupt, approach that prevails in the Empire.

The tensions this produces become something of a leitmotif in the two shows. Worf is an outsider to Klingon society, marked as different both by his positionally — adopted child of humans, member of Star Fleet — and by his unshakeable commitment to the values that Klingons espouse.

Tim Burke has a fantastic post about this and how, as he puts it, “Worf is a great example of how writers and showrunners on a long-running episodic television show can accidentally stumble into a compelling character arc that they plainly didn’t have in mind when they started out.” Go read.

The one thing I’ll add is that Star Trek: Lower Decks satirizes all of this in its Season 3 DS9 crossover episode, “Hear All, Trust Nothing.” Series regular Ensign Tendi, whose distinctly non-piratical, non-sexualized manner defies Orion stereotypes, meets another Orion member of Star Fleet, Ensign Mesk. Mesk’s overzealous Orion-ness annoys her to no end. But we eventually discover that, as his entry in Memory Alpha explains:

Mesk was adopted by Humans and grew up in Cincinnati, Ohio on Earth. Though seemingly familiar with many aspects of Orion life, he had never, as of the 2380s, visited Orion, with everything he knew about Orions learned from bad holonovels, namely “the ones with the boobs on the cover.” He put on an exaggerated front of acting like people expected Orions to act, and because he never knew any other Orions in Ohio, no one ever checked him on it.

Rewriting U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Strategy?

by Dan Nexon | 28 December 2022, 1358 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

Over at Lawyers, Guns & Money, Cheryl Rofer raises concerns about the possibility that STRATCOM is trying, per Defense News, to “furiously” rewrite U.S. deterrence strategy

Writing “a new nuclear deterrence theory” is not a college essay. Nor can it “furiously” be done overnight, as if that essay were due tomorrow.

The nuclear deterrent, which is what people like Richard often call the nuclear arsenal, has never deterred smaller wars. Vietnam and Afghanistan saw nuclear superpowers invade, undeterred by other nuclear superpowers. And now Ukraine.

My best guess is that the good folks of STRATCOM will rely on arguments that the U.S. derives major benefits from nuclear superiority. Such claims are, to say the least, highly tendentious and weakly demonstrated.

Even if they don’t, as Cheryl emphasizes, it’s not at all clear that there’s any kind of “problem” in need of a solution.

If I were working over at the National Security Council or OSD(P) then I would definitely want to be proactive about keeping this from going off the rails.

Explanatory Theory as Definition

by Dan Nexon | 25 December 2022, 0050 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

I’ve been very slowly working on a post about whether reactionary populism is a form of fascism. Well, it’s more about the debate itself — and particularly “things I find annoying.” One of them is when participants make arguments based on their theoretical priors about the causes of interwar fascism. “It can’t possibly be fascism because fascism was a response to World War I” or “It can’t possibly be fascism because big business doesn’t support it.”

There are all kinds of problems with this line of argument. It conflates cause with effect. It ignores the possibility of equifinality. It often relies on an implicit functionalism — and a deterministic one at that. It begs the question. That sort of thing.

The argument is particularly poorly suited to ideologies and beliefs, which routinely outlast the conditions of their production. The circumstances that produced Christianity and Islam no longer exist, yet that doesn’t mean that there are no Christians or Muslims. Sure, modern variants of both differ in significant ways from their original forms. But no one who supports the “it’s fascism” position thinks that reactionary populism is identical to, say, Nazism.

While this kind of reasoning clusters on the “it’s not fascism” side of the debate, that doesn’t mean the “it’s fascism” crowd is famous for making airtight arguments.

More later.

Twitter Status

by Dan Nexon | 20 December 2022, 1222 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

I recently posted “I’m done.” I then axed every other tweet on my timeline, and I disabled automatic x-posting between Twitter and Mastodon. Still, I’m not ready to delete my account; I’ve been trying to decide what to do about automated posting at @dhnexon, @DuckofMinerva, and @WhiskeyIRT. Odds are that you’re reading this on Twitter, and therefore know that I haven’t disabled this functionality.

I’m facing the same dilemma that a lot of people are. Twitter is the single most important distribution node for my academic publications, public-facing pieces, blogposts, podcasts… you name it. Post hasn’t been doing it for me. Mastodon is great but there’s a long way to go before it catches up.

So I continue to hedge, even as Twitter creaks and groans under its lord and master. Damn network effects.

Whiskey and IR Theory Stuff

by Dan Nexon | 17 December 2022, 0246 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

As listeners of the podcast know, PTJ and I have trouble keeping a consistent release schedule. We average about two months between episodes.

In order to address the problem, we’re looking at doing more articles.

That suggests themes.

Current plan: relationalism. We’ve already recorded an episode on Emirbayer’s “Manifesto,” so why not continue?

We’re also considering a guided tour through a synthesis of our Science Fiction and International Relations classes.

Thoughts?

Are you not entertained?

by Dan Nexon | 16 December 2022, 0002 EST | Microblog | 0 Comments

At least so far, my basic Twitter experience hasn’t changed much — thanks to more liberal use of the “block” and “mute” buttons. Not being “big time” enough or, frankly, interesting enough to target probably helps.

Still, I’m not finding it terribly rewarding. Lord Prince Musk’s Duchy of Freebird is not unlike Twitter in the Trump era, but with lower stakes and a more articulate despot.

What crazy, trollish, logically incoherent thing will Elon (the first-name thing is ridiculously parasocial) do next? And how will his fanboys and haters react?

Such exciting. Much amuse.

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