So Japan’s former Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was very friendly with Donald Trump while he was president. The two leaders even played several rounds of golf when they were both in power, despite Trump’s anti-Asian, anti-alliance (and occasionally anti-Japan)...
I had a piece in the Washington Post's "Monkeycage" over the weekend, which you can read here. I noted that many worry Saudi Arabia and the UAE will pull America into war with Iran. But it actually...
Today, Ryan Crocker--career foreign service officer and former Ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan--wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post criticizing its criticism of the Afghanistan war he oversaw....
Warning! According to the law that the Russian parliament passed yesterday, this post might need to be prefaced with a disclaimer that the following text has been compiled by a foreign agent. An...
I'm on team Dan on the question of not freaking out over Syria. I don't think Jeff's assessment on this blog reflects the reality which is one of Russian weakness, nor am I convinced, per Seth's conjecture, that the Obama administration had some master plan to lure the Russians in to Syria. Russia's moves in to Syria suggest real fear that their long time client state could fail. By one estimate, the Syrian army has been reduced by 2/3 to less than 100,000, and as Dominic Tierney points out in The Atlantic, Assad may control only a 1/5 of Syria. I also agree with a number of folks like...
The Russian Federation covers more territory than any other country. It has a large nuclear arsenal, skilled weapons designers, and the world's fourth largest military budget—after the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia. But it maintains that budget—which comes it at roughly 12% of US military expenditures—by spending a larger percentage of its GDP on defense than does the United States, China, Britain, France, Japan, or Germany. Indeed, if the major European economies boosted defense spending to 3% of GDP—still short of Russia—they would each have larger military budgets. Of course,...
Russia has begun conducting air strikes in Syria, much to consternation of many. But there seems to be some in the Obama Administration who can barely contain their glee at the thought of Putin and Russia getting bogged down in the Syria quagmire: “If he wants to jump into that mess, good luck,” one official said, noting that Russia had become bogged down in Afghanistan a generation ago in a fight against Islamic radicals. Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken told reporters that the Russians may be “making a terrible strategic mistake” by deepening their military involvement in...
The Third Way project, a centrist Democratic policy outfit, has just released an interesting survey on public attitudes going in to the 2016 election. They make two arguments that I think are worth exploring, (1) the foreign policy advantage Democrats briefly enjoyed in the wake of the Iraq War has dissipated and (2) foreign policy may be more salient in this election than in the recent past. My general take is that foreign policy, barring a crisis, isn't a big driver of voter decisions in presidential elections. That said, it could be an important issue for a more significant segment of...
The ominous Russian military buildup in Syria represents the most significant projection of force beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union since the old Cold War. It will allow Russia to keep the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria, effectively negating the new diplomatic path toward resolution of the regional sectarian war that has been opened up by the Iran nuclear deal. In addition it will further enable Russia to build and retain a major forward operating base for Russian military forces. At first it will be used to keep Assad in power. Then, as a cover, Russia...
Last night was the second debate between the GOP presidential candidates. So, as I did with the first one, let's take a look back at the foreign policy aspects, shall we? I'll be working off of the debate transcript published by the Washington Post. And, like last time, I won't be considering immigration as a foreign policy issue because a) the candidates are dealing with it as a domestic policy issue and b) I don't know much about the politics of immigration. I also won't engage the question of whether Donald Trump can be trusted with access to the US nuclear arsenal. (I apologize for the...
It looks like the Obama administration has secured 42 votes for the Iran deal in the Senate, enough to filibuster even a vote, and despite today's machinations in the House, the Iran Deal will likely go through. Indeed, when Republicans agreed back in May to a review process that would require a super-majority in both chambers to overturn the deal, the die was already somewhat cast. Still, I'm thrilled that supporters have been able to hold the line in the face of a multi-million dollar campaign against the agreement. In the final days, we're seeing a surge in efforts to get views on the...
Over on my Facebook feed, there's a good discussion going on about Adam Elkus' "The Problem of Bridging the Gap." Elkus' post amounts to, quite deliberately, a medium-length polemic against "policy relevance." That is, he aims to provoke. For example, Elkus argues that: It judges the value of academic inquiry from the perspective of whether or not it concords with the values, aims, preferences, and policy concerns and goals of a few powerful elites. Why, if anything, do we judge “policy relevance” by whether or not it helps governmentpolicy elites? Surely governmental elites, politicians,...