The world could use some serious thinking about the relationship between political ideology and nuclear escalation—specifically far-right pathways to nuclear war. The nuclear strategy literature is full of smart claims from many angles: entanglement risks, discrimination problems, first-use incentives, credible commitments, retaliatory v. catalytic v. asymmetric postures, the staying power of the nuclear revolution, and the escalatory...
The second installment of our live taping at the British International Studies Association annual…
The Indo-Pacific is an increasingly contested space. Literature on the region revolves around the notion that China’s deepening regional footprint has exacerbated apprehensions in Washington, Canberra, New Delhi, and Tokyo. Some worry that Xi might institute a security architecture with the ‘Middle Kingdom’ at the center rivalling the US hub-and-spokes model. Others, less apprehensive (and possibly more realistic), believe that China intends to...
Shakthi De Silva is a Non-Resident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum International (2023-24) and a Visiting Lecturer at the Royal Institute of Colombo and Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies where he teaches courses on International Relations. He previously served as a Lecturer at the University of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and as a Researcher for think tanks in the Sri Lankan Defence Ministry and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His publications...
Ongoing instability in the Sahel – involving worsening insurgent violence, deepening great power competition, and frequent coups – is exposing weaknesses in U.S. Africa policy. In fact, three years into what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called an “epidemic” of coups, the United States and its closest allies in the region still lack a coherent and coordinated strategy to defend democracy in Africa without sacrificing security...
Haleigh Bartos is an associate professor of the practice in CMIST at Carnegie Mellon University. She has 20 years of experience studying African security; she teaches courses on the region and national security at CMU, including Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa and In the News: Analysis of Current National Security Priorities.
John Chin is an assistant teaching professor of political science in CMIST at Carnegie Mellon University, where he was previously a post-doctoral fellow. His research focuses on technologies of rebellion (coups d’état, self-coups, mass protest and nonviolent revolution, and assassinations), authoritarian politics, comparative democratization, and forecasting political instability. He is the lead author of an Historical Dictionary of Modern...
This is just a short follow-up to my post yesterday with a few predictions. First about Netanyahu's future. Prior to Hamas' attack over the weekend, much discussion about Israel focused on the right-wing Netanyahu government, his continuing corruption trial, and his efforts to reduce the power of Israel's courts. For those who oppose Netanyahu, they fear he will emerge from this crisis strengthened. There are reasons to expect this. Hamas'...
During a pivotal scene in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, Bruce Wayne talks with his butler/confidante Alfred about The Joker. Wayne suggests he can make sense of The Joker's motivation as a first step towards stopping his rampage. Alfred tells a story about an operation from his paramilitary career, in which a bandit leader was stealing precious jewels the government had handed out and tossing them in a river. Alfred suggest this was...
A reporter asked me what we should expect from the upcoming climate negotiations, known as COP28, which will be held in the United Arab Emirates starting the end of November. This is my fairly off-the-cuff answer which may be somewhat pessimistic. I am more broadly optimistic that the clean energy transition is underway, though not at that pace required (yet) to stay below 2 degrees C of warming. If you think I'm off-base, please comment or...
Part I here if you are interested On the day of German reunification anniversary I bring you the sequel to the post on the new Russian history book. Only, if you read this history book, you will not find the term "reunification" - it's reserved for Crimea and Donbas - instead, you will find a passage about Western Germany "annexing" the Eastern one. Believe it or not, it is actually a toned down version of another history textbook co-authored...
Professor Jarrod Hayes joins the Hayseed Scholar podcast. Jarrod was born in Colorado, but moved to Utah at a young age and grew up there for a bit before relocating with his mother to just outside of Atlanta, Georgia. In high school, he found he enjoyed doing research especially with science and technology, and so he went to the University of Colorado to pursue a degree in Astrophysics. But at Colorado he also enjoyed studying International...