If current leads hold, I will have correctly predicted a 364-179 electoral college outcome, with Obama winning either IN or MO, but not both.
If current leads hold, I will have correctly predicted a 364-179 electoral college outcome, with Obama winning either IN or MO, but not both.
Just kidding. Apparently some Obama voter may have shifted her residency from Florida to New York, despite intending to move back to New York. Brian Faughnan of Red State, however, insinuates that...
Larry King on CNN: Dixville Notch, NH goes for Obama, 15 - 6.First time that city has gone D since 1968.Sign of the times-- the results are already up on Wikipedia, not even 15 minutes after...
Readers of the Duck were privy to only part of a larger Duck-bloggers and Duck-regulars discussion concerning video footage of a McCain rally at Lehigh University.The discussion included an email...
There's this video of McCain supporters in line at a rally in Pennsylvania that has been making the rounds on the 'Net (tip of the hat to Janice Bially Mattern for sending it to me). Here it is now:Figuring out what to make of this is slightly more complicated than simply having a gut reaction to it -- not the a gut reaction is unimportant, or even necessarily wrong, but in this case I think it can obscure some of what's going on in the scene. This is particularly true since the video's author is clearly drawing a contrast between the hate-filled and factually inaccurate statements of the...
One thing that has been bothering me of late in the Presidential debate is how the press and the public are asking the wrong questions of the candidates about the economy. While part of it may be symptomatic of a general lack of understanding as to what is going on, it also betrays an intellectual laziness in those covering and discussing the campaign. Wedded to tired lines of debate, these questions rehash what we think is important and distract from the development of an understanding of the current state of affairs which has very little relationship to the ancien regime.Two general areas...
David Brooks always styled himself as a member of the conservative intellectual vanguard. He would much rather be an observer of "real people" than to actually dirty his hands at playing milkmaid in his own Hameau de la reine.But David Brooks has recently come to a stunning realization: To borrow a line from Jeff Foxworthy, "you might be a member of the East Coast elite if... you have a column in The New York Times, are a regular commentator on the NEWSHOUR, and like to drop names like Edmund Burke and Russel Kirk."Now, fearing that he might be among the first against the wall when the...
Yesterday I wrote in an email to a conservative blogger that I thought that McCain still had a fighting chance. I don't think so any more. I suppose enough slime might make this thing close. An al Qaeda intervention, or some other exogenous shock, might even salvage McCain's position.But I'll be very surprised if Obama doesn't win this thing, and win it convincingly.
My side of the blogsphere seems to think the video of a McCain supporter mouthing off about socialists and hoodlums is an indictment of McCain himself.When I watch the video, I see McCain affirming the man's anger but trying hard not to endorse his views. McCain, in fact, says he will work with "anyone" to solve the current crisis. Although I find the accusation that the contemporary Democratic party and its Presidential nominee are "socialists" bizarre, particularly in light of recent events, this is pretty weak tea when it comes to the rants of everyday partisans. So why is it getting so...
I've been curious about the accusation--which can be found in almost any comment thread on a media website--that Obama wrote a "foreword" for the William Ayer's book, A Kind and Just Parent: The Children of the Criminal Court. The rumor is obviously false, as the book doesn't even have a foreword (but does have two five-star reviews. I wonder how long that's going to last). So where did the rumor come from?The best I can tell is that Obama reportedly read the book; Ayers does mention "writer Barack Obama" as one of his neighbors in its pages, which at least one enterprising anti-Obama site...
When Obama's participation in an anti-redlining lawsuit is characterized as a "smoking gun" for his culpability in the current crisis, I know that we're through the looking glass.The bizarreness of attempts to blame the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and ACORN for the current subprime crisis is so totally bizarre that it raises an important question: is the point of all of this to (1) simply find some way, no matter how warped, to blame Obama for the crisis or (2) also to plant the seeds for a campaign to bring back discriminatory lending practices?
When a polling organization conducts a mere 300 interviews each day for a national tracking poll, this is what you get: the potential for one day of outlier polling to produce phony movement. Or, to quote Brad DeLong (who we really should be linking to more):...the Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll [is] an undersampled daily poll designed to produce a whole bunch of spurious three-day climbs in one candidate's relative vote share followed by a three-day decline so that reporters can trick readers into thinking that there are important pieces of news and trends in there.Anyone want to bet on how...